胡奕明教授出席第二期“CCDS中国发展研讨会”

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527日,由中国发展研究中心(Center for China Development studies, CCDS)主办的第二期“CCDS中国发展研讨会”在上海交大安泰经济与管理学院召开。为本次研讨会做主题演讲的嘉宾有来自中央财经大学的陈斌开、北京师范大学的尹恒、对外经贸大学的毛捷、山东大学的解垩、中山大学的徐现祥、华中科技大学的范子英、上海财经大学的付文林以及来自上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院的陆铭、钱军辉、施浩、胡奕明共11位学者。经济学院执行院长陈宪教授等四十位师生出席了会议。会议由上海交大安泰经济与管理学院陆铭教授主持。

 

会议主持人上海交大安泰经济与管理学院陆铭教授

 本次会议的主题是 “财政与公共经济”,学者们从财政、税收、银行债务、转移支付等多方面报告了自己的最新研究成果,并与在座师生进行了深入的交流和互动,现场气氛活跃。

CCDS研讨会与会人员现场

以下是各位与会学者的精彩演讲观点摘录:

 

施浩:Shocks, Distortions, Misallocation and Aggregate TFP Loss

This study re-examines the impacts of factor misallocation on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP) when firms face both production and demand shocks. We show that, in previous studies where such shocks are not considered, the extent of factor misallocation and that of the aggregate TFP loss are exaggerated. In fact, empirical results indicate that the aggregate TFP losses in the Chinese manufacturing sector are exaggerated to twice the size they actually are. Additionally, results from this study also show that the measured cross-country differences in aggregate TFP loss and the relative importance of the various sources that cause aggregate TFP loss are also biased when the shocks are not considered.

 

陈斌开:Development Strategy, Resource Misallocation and Economic Growth

1. Resource Misallocation is the key to understand China’s Economic Development.

2. One of the most important determinants of resource misallocation is government’s development strategy.

3. Heavy industry oriented development strategy is also implemented in other developing countries, which implies that development strategy and misallocation should be very important in understanding cross country income difference.

 

尹恒:Cost and Product Advantages: A Firm-level Model for the Chinese Exports and Industry Growth

A model aimed at assessing the firm-level distribution of costs and demand advantages. Estimation of productivity and demand advantages based on revenues across markets, inputs and input costs. Preliminary estimates show sensible demand and production parameters, and very informative distributions of demand and cost advantages. The distributions of demand advantages are asymmetric and more dispersed. China growth of exports during the 2000’s is associated with a robust TFP growth and a more unequal development of product advantages. Among the many things to do it is particularly important to endogenize the development of advantages.

 

胡奕明:城投债的定价与信用评级影响因素研究

信用级别与财务指标的相关程度低,说明财务指标好坏不能决定信用级别

一次性还款的信用级别大于分期偿还的信用级别

信用级别与各类担保方式负相关

 

毛捷:More Competition or More Monopoly in Recent China? Misleading Tale Would be Spun Monopoly measurement directly using the data set of CIED will significantly underestimate monopoly in ChinaIf growth rate is frequently underestimated, then trend bias may be big. Standardized level should be used.

 

钱军辉:Chinese Central Banking in Transition

PBC has been dancing with shackles. The shackles may tighten again, at the same time muscles have lost flexibility. Price-based central banking will need a more developed financial infrastructure. A unified deep bond market is called for. This may be achieved by allowing arbitrage across existing bond markets. Treasury bond issuance needs to expand, not only in quantity and frequency, but also in more continuous term structure. The futures exchange market for treasury bonds should be restored.

 

解垩:转移支付与贫困脆弱性

尽管贫困发生率呈现下降态势,但仍有1/4的群体在某一个年份中经历了贫困,说明城乡家庭遭受脆弱性的比例不容忽视;随着贫困线标准的提高,贫困发生率与脆弱性之间的差异越来越小;无论贫困线划在何处,转移支付对慢性贫困和暂时性贫困的脆弱性基本没有任何影响。

 

付文林:国民收入分配结构失衡:价值链分工视角

中国的价值链分工地位加剧了国民收入分配结构的失衡。劳动力市场的城乡和地区分割是导致劳动收入占比报酬下降的原因之一,但这种效应存在着经济发展阶段性特征。产业结构升级会造成国民收入分配结构失衡。因为工业化生产伴随着劳动力要素节约,国民收入分配关系逐渐倾向于资本要素。

 

徐现祥:中国省际差距缩小的财政基础

中国地区经济差距从2005年后出现缩小趋势,这是发达地区政府主动放缓辖区经济增长的结果。中央采用偏向穷地区的区域平衡发展,富地区将受损。在一定条件下,将主动放缓辖区经济增长,以降低经济损失。地方政府的增长目标决定了区域差距的变动态势。当中央采用偏向穷地区的区域平衡发展后,富地区的增长目标放慢了约0.5个百分点。

 

范子英部长的力量:政治关联与财政转移支付的分配

新增部长的效应使得转移支付增加2亿,重要部长为9.4亿,增幅130%,占地方预算收入34%。比美国国会委员会主席作用大。不同点:新任部长倒U规律,卸任部长无逆转,一把手权力垄断。

 

陆铭民生的希望——领导者的文科学历与财政支出结构

分税制改革之后科教文卫支出比重下降,但省级有差异。领导力很重要,领导力影响经济发展。省委书记的学历重要,省委书记的文科学历对财政支出结构的确有影响。自本地晋升的省委书记对公共支出也有正向影响。制度也重要,但财政自主度并不象之前的研究中那样显著。

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